In brief, my conclusions are:

• Hillary is beatable
• Huckabee will (eventually) flame out
• Thompson will (soon) drop out
• Republicans are in trouble
• The real reason Obama & Huckabee won

It is a stretch to prognosticate based on one contest, even if it’s the first-in-the-nation. But hey, it’s my blog! So I’ll stick my neck out.

The first thing I notice about last night’s caucus in Iowa is that Hillary will not be coronated Queen Bee as she wanted. She is not the “candidate of inevitability.” She is beatable. Obama’s win was 9% higher than Hillary. That’s pretty convincing. I still think Hillary is the odds-on favorite to win the nomination primarily because she and Bill know how to fight dirty and you can be sure the long knives are coming out for Mr. Obama. I would favor an Obama candidacy personally and I sincerely hope he beats Hillary. I think Obama would be easier for Republicans to defeat in the general election, and if he somehow did get elected, he would be less effective in office. Hillary can do much more damage to the country, especially with an all-Democrat Congress. But (my opinion) she’s still the favorite to win her party’s nomination.

Mike Huckabee had a big night, much bigger than most (including me) thought he would. Apparently bolstered by Evangelical Christians. Disclaimer: I am an Evangelical Christian. However, I do not support Mike Huckabee in the primaries. I think he would be the weakest candidate the Republicans could field come November. Primarily because he’s liberal on many key issues. He’s wrong on the environment, wrong on illegal aliens and he has a screwy tax plan that will never go anywhere. He also has Ed Rollins as his national campaign chairman–a Washington political consultant who once worked on the Reagan campaigns. Last night Rollins insulted Chris Wallace (Fox News Sunday host) big-time when Wallace probed him with questions about a so-called “private” conversation Rollins had in a public restaurant with his wife, overheard by others and reported in the media. I frankly was ashamed of Rollins’ rude performance toward Wallace. Rollins also said recently he would like to “knock out” Mitt Romney’s teeth. I don’t know what’s happened to Rollins in the past 20 years…perhaps he was always that way and I just don’t remember it. One thing’s for sure–he’s not a nice man.

Another thing I take exception to with Mike Huckabee is his insertion of religion into the campaign. That may sound weird coming from an Evangelical like me. Huckabee tried to smear Mitt Romney’s Mormonism with his question, “Don’t Mormons believe that Jesus and the Devil are brothers?” This campaign is about who will be commander-in-chief, not pastor-in-chief. I consider comments like that a low blow. And one more item…Huckabee, at the prompting of Ed Rollins, made a negative commercial blasting Romney. I could care less that he made the commercial–politics is a blood sport and negative ads are part of it. But the Huck never paid to have it aired. Instead, he pulled a publicity stunt by assembling reporters and playing the ad for them and telling them he wasn’t going to release it. To which the reporters in attendance laughed themselves silly. But you know what? It got played over and over in Iowa–for free. Sleazy politics. I don’t like it. I don’t like Ed Rollins. The Huck is not running a very “Christian” campaign if you ask me. Would I support him in the general election? Yes. He’s a social conservative, and far better than Obama or Hillary. I don’t think he would win the general election. I do believe his popularity will soon flame out. I may be wrong–wouldn’t be the first time. These are my gut instincts.

Fred Thompson did not have a stellar night. As you know, he’s “my guy” in the race. I expect him to drop out soon–maybe before New Hampshire. A shame, really. He’s the only true conservative in the entire bunch. He just hasn’t caught fire. Sometimes it happens. That’s what these primaries and caucuses are all about. The field starts to narrow down and those that survive are stronger and better able to campaign in the general election come November. For now, I’ll reserve judgment on who to vote for in February in the New York primary.

After last night, I believe the Republicans are in trouble. The turnout in last night’s Iowa caucus was 227,000 Democrats and 116,000 Republicans. There are about 637,000 registered Democrats statewide in Iowa and 616,500 registered Republicans. If you run the numbers as a percentage of those voting compared to total registration, the Dems turned out 35.6%. That’s an unheard of number for a caucus. It’s usually somewhere around a 6-7% turnout. The Repubs turned out 18.8%. What does it mean? I believe the results mean the Democrats are more “juiced” about their candidates than Republicans are. I realize this is only one contest–Iowa. And it may not be indicative of other places. But my suspicion is, it does generally reflect the mood nationwide. That’s why I say the Republicans are in trouble. We need to keep a close eye on how many Republicans turn out. I suspect more don’t show up because they feel like me–somewhat depressed with the field of candidates to select from.

So why did Obama and Huckabee win, and win convincingly last night? The answer is quite simple: Optimism. They both run positive campaigns. The Huck needs to be careful that Rollins doesn’t swing him into being negative or he will quickly loose his momentum. Year after year it’s been shown that candidates who paint a picture of hope and optimism do better than candidates who preach doom and gloom. John Edwards’ message is one of hatred and class warfare (just watch his speech from last night). He wants to tap into those who feel miserable about themselves and our country. It’s a loosing strategy–but don’t tell him. Hillary’s strategy is to be all things to all people. If you stand for everything on every issue, ultimately you stand for nothing. People are tired of Clintonian “triangulation” on every issue. Bill was good at it because of his personal charisma. Hillary is not good at it because of her ice queen image.

Obama’s message is one of change and a bright future. I happen to think Oprah campaigning for him helped too. A lot of people like her, and her opinion counts. Just ask any author who was lucky enough to be selected for her book club. So far the Huck has stayed positive too, except for the sleazy “I’m not running a negative ad, but here it is so you can see it” flip flop last week. If he stays positive, he stands a pretty good chance of continuing to do well in the near-term, although I believe his popularity will ultimately evaporate.

There is no mystery here. Candidates do well whenever they talk about the future and provide hope to those who listen. People want to hear about things that are right with the country, not things that are wrong. If there is one lesson from Iowa, it is to “stay positive.”

What are your thoughts on the results? Leave a comment.

Technorati Tags: Barak Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson, Iowa Caucus, political analysis, presidential primary